Half-Court Issues Raise Inquiries into Detroit Pistons Starter Synergy

Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox

The Detroit Pistons are coming off the most successful season they’ve had in 17 years, a year led by young, homegrown talent in Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, and Jalen Duren. The Pistons have a bright future ahead of them.

The first season of success is often the most memorable for fans. Any wins in the playoffs are seen as great, losses aren’t seen as detrimental, and anything positive is seen as just the cherry on top.

Success comes with the expectation of more.

With the expectation of more comes tough decisions. It comes with cutting through the joy of the previous season, objectively analyzing your team’s weaknesses, and examining every angle to improve.

That’s where Trajan Langdon and the Pistons find themselves with their starting lineup of Cunningham, Tim Hardaway Jr, Thompson, Tobias Harris, and Duren. This lineup had a significant impact after the new year. This lineup maintained that impact during the NBA playoffs.

According to CleaningTheGlass, of 22 five-man lineups that played at least 500 possessions together, the Pistons’ starting lineup ranked 11th in net rating at +6.5. This only improved in the playoffs, where of the 24 five-man lineups that played at least 100 possessions, the Pistons starters ranked seventh in net rating at +12.6.

This was primarily due to their suffocating defense. The only five-man lineup in the playoffs to have a better defensive rating than the Pistons starters was the Boston Celtics starting unit; the Pistons’ opening lineup had a defensive rating of 97.6, and the Celtics had a defensive rating of 91.7.

The numbers seem straightforward—this starting lineup works.

As presently constructed, Jaden Ivey will be inserted into Hardaway Jr.'s place. The rest of the starters remain intact. And looking at the numbers, you would think this is a fine decision. According to NBArapm, Ivey finished in the 91st percentile as a spot-up shooter in the 30 games he played. If he can replicate that shooting, this would fill some of the shooting void Hardaway Jr. leaves behind.

However, there have been rumors for weeks that the Pistons have an interest in a stretch-five(Naz Reid, Myles Turner, to name a few). I have heard over the last week that these rumors are accurate and there is, indeed, a level of interest in acquiring a center that spaces the floor. Those interests raise questions: wouldn’t that spell a change for the Pistons center room and the starting lineup? Why would the Pistons have any interest in changing what worked?

The answer to that seems to be concerns about the long-term fit between Duren and Thompson.

The Pistons’ defense with those two on the floor was excellent this season. That two-man lineup had a defensive rating of 110.3 during the regular season, and in the playoffs, it improved even further, dropping to a 100.0 defensive rating. But while defense does win championships, great defensive teams still need good offenses to win titles. And the offense was a struggle, specifically in the halfcourt.

Even the 2004 Pistons were a good half-court offense relative to their time. During the regular season, they had the 13th-best halfcourt offense, and in the playoffs, they had the sixth-best halfcourt offense when including putbacks!

The Pistons’ starting lineup played 1037 possessions during the regular season together. Their halfcourt offensive rating was an abysmal 93.7. This was the fifth-worst half-court offensive rating of all lineups that qualified. The only teams with a worse half-court offensive lineup were the Washington Wizards, Portland Trail Blazers, and two Houston Rockets* lineups.

*who just acquired Kevin Durant to solve those half-court offensive issues.

Only one playoff team made it into the second round with a lineup that played over 400 possessions with a halfcourt offensive rating less than 100.0. That team was the Minnesota Timberwolves, and the Timberwolves were more than six points better than the Pistons.

Expanding this beyond the Pistons' starting lineup and looking at the team as a whole, the Pistons had the second-worst half-court offense in the entire playoffs! The only team worse than Detroit was the Orlando Magic, who immediately acquired Desmond Bane to address that issue.

The primary reason this Pistons team struggles in the halfcourt is because of the lack of spacing from both Duren and Thompson. If you replace Thompson with Malik Beasley in this lineup, the Pistons’ half-court offense jumps from the 22nd percentile to the 78th percentile.

The problem is that the Pistons’ defense becomes one of the worst in the NBA when Thompson leaves the floor, and that lineup with Beasley instead of Thompson has a -3.5 net rating.

To improve and achieve the level of their newfound expectations, the Pistons have to become a better half-court offense. I've heard that Thompson is a high priority with this front office, and with noise circulating about acquiring a stretch five, it seems like the Pistons are interested in how their offense could look in a different situation.

There have also been whispers for the last two years that some believe Cunningham’s finishing would improve drastically with more spacing on the floor. This has been Cunningham’s biggest weakness, as he finished in the 30th percentile around the rim this past season, shooting only 56 percent.

Would the above finish be easier on Cunningham if Thompson were in the dunker spot instead, with a respected shooter on the wing replacing him? Would OG Anunoby help down off of that shooter to block this shot from Cunningham? Would Cunningham trust his teammate at the wing more and make this pass instead of shooting the ball if it were a respected shooter?

Playing Thompson with a stretch-five has been seen before, but in minimal samples. Thompson played 71 minutes with Danilo Gallinari as a stretch-five in his rookie season. In those minutes, the Pistons fielded a 135.6 offensive rating and a +18.8 net rating.

Thompson also played 118 minutes with Mike Muscala in his rookie season. In those minutes, the Pistons had a 119.4 offensive rating and a 101.2 defensive rating. These are minimal samples, but they very much support the theory that the offense would reach another level with a shooting big.

You’d likely see more actions like the one above, where Thompson is used as a screener with Cunningham. Instead of Duren being in the dunker spot, you’d have another player spacing to the corner, leaving the paint wide-open for Thompson to attack with his generational athleticism.

Thompson is more than capable of making short roll reads and delivering incredible passes as a roll-man if the defense were to rotate down on his roll.

Duren, however, just had a successful playoff run for a player his age. He showed significant improvement on both ends of the floor by the end of last season and has excellent chemistry with Cunningham. He’s only 21 years of age. Would you have to move on from Duren to test out what having a stretch-five with Cunningham and Thompson looks like?

Not necessarily.

The Pistons could have two bigs that take up all of the center minutes, one being Duren and the other being a shooting big that gives them optionality and versatility with the lineups they can deploy.

However, this would then raise questions about fan favorite Isaiah Stewart. Where would he fit in all of this? Does he go back to being a four again?

The Pistons currently have only two contracts on their cap sheet that can facilitate a trade by matching salaries: Harris ($26.6 million) and Stewart ($15.0 million). Will Stewart just become the needed salary in a trade this summer?

These are difficult questions to answer after having such a joyous season led by this same group of young players. Langdon could play it super safe. Bring back the same team, replace Hardaway Jr with Ivey in the starting lineup, and see if they figure things out in the halfcourt.

The Pistons front office could rely upon internal development, with the hope that one of Thompson or Duren extends their range farther than just three feet from the rim. See if these lineups can consistently space the floor precisely each possession without one of the two ending up in the same space. Maybe Thompson's offseason improvement as a ball handler allows Detroit to use him more as an initiator and forces defenses to guard him away from the rim.

No one would kill this regime for taking this approach and being cautious. In a pre-draft press conference Tuesday morning, Langdon said, “We’re not going to be super aggressive this summer, I don’t think. I don’t foresee any of that. It’s just developing from within and hopefully keep the guys we brought in last year.”

However, the bigger point here is that there are very clearly questions about the long-term fit of all these young players together. Langdon is very high on rookie Ron Holland as well, and a stretch-five would make it easier to play Holland and Thompson together.

According to PbP Stats, the duo only played 148 minutes this past season. The Pistons outscored opponents by 14.2 points per 100 possessions in these minutes, with a defensive rating of 100.9. There is a level of belief in the building that Holland will become at least a willing, passable shooter, with the help of shooting coach Fred Vinson.

Could a stretch-five allow the Pistons’ two best wing defenders to suffocate teams, while giving just enough space offensively for Cunningham to operate?

How soon do the Pistons want to start playing the two wings together? Is it next year? Or further down the line?

This offseason, Cunningham’s extension kicks in, and the Pistons can decide on extensions for Ivey and Duren. In the same pre-draft press conference mentioned earlier, Langdon sounded comfortable with the possibility of letting this season play out regarding Ivey and Duren’s restricted free agency:

“Hopefully we can have conversations about that, and if we don’t, they’ll play the year out and we’ll see from there."

Trajan Langdon and the Pistons have many routes they can take this summer. They have incredible flexibility and aren’t forced to pick any one pathway.

But things aren’t just butterflies and rainbows anymore. There will be expectations from this fan base to improve next season. Owner Tom Gores made that clear after the season.

“With a return to full strength next year and valuable experience under our belts, advancing in the playoffs will be the goal.”, Gores said after the New York Knicks eliminated the Pistons. “Trajan and his team will act with urgency to strengthen our roster.”

The pairing of Thompson and Duren was the best option for this past season. Detroit won its minutes convincingly all year. It might still end up being their best option next season! The defense and transition offense they create will almost certainly be able to carry them through the regular season with some success.

But is it the best option in the long term? Can they take another step with this fit of players together in the starting lineup? Or is there another route that elevates the ceiling of the core players?

Right now, all this intrigue may remain that: intrigue.

Only time will tell.